Dr. Jay Melvin
Pooler City Council
Neighborhoods continue to grow in west Chatham County and the expanding towns there, such as Pooler, Bloomingdale and Port Wentworth.
The influx of people to Pooler- 83 percent between July 2000 and July 2006 - is the leading edge of a population boom on the perimeter of Savannah.
Pooler is well on its way to doubling its population since the 2000 census.
The number of people there - up 83 percent between July 2000 and July 2006 - is the leading edge of a demographic boom on Savannah's perimeter.
"It's not growth," said City Clerk Maribeth Lindler, a 20-year resident of the westside Chatham County community. "It's more like an explosion.
"We've had pure pandemonium - builders building thousands of houses at a time."
Meanwhile, Savannah itself continued to lose population and Chatham County grew only slightly.
That's according to the U.S. Census Bureau, which on Thursday released its latest estimates of population growth across the nation.
The new numbers - which also show Effingham County's population up by 30.4 percent and Bryan County's up 26.6 percent - reflect recent trends.
But the healthy numbers didn't seem to cause much of a stir Thursday.
"You're just getting second-ring growth," said Judy Hadley, a statistical research analyst for the Governor's Office of Planning and Budget in Atlanta. "It's mostly people moving out of Savannah for a little more land and house for their dollars. It's nothing new.
"Around Atlanta, we have third- and fourth-ring growth."
State Rep. Ron Stephens, R-Savannah, chairman of the House Economic Development and Tourism Committee, sees other factors.
Stephens cited the arrival of Northerners who initially settled in Florida, then opted to move to the Georgia coast.
"Coastal Georgia is a hidden treasure that people are starting to find," he said.
Stephens also said the success of the port of Savannah as well as state regulatory and tax policies that promote jobs and businesses have attracted new residents.
Savannah developer Ed Feiler said it was only logical that growth be focused to the west and south of Savannah.
Escalating housing costs in Savannah played a role, and most of the land east of Savannah - the islands area - is already developed, Feiler said.
"Besides," he quipped, "you start running into a little bit of water."
State Rep. Buddy Carter, R-Pooler, was only mildly surprised by the extent of his city's growth.
"I knew there was a lot of growth, but these numbers are somewhat higher than what I expected," Carter said.
It helps that Pooler is near the intersection of Interstate 95 and I-16, he said.
"There is no better place to live in terms of access to work and business," Stephens agreed.
Carter and Feiler said farsighted planning for other major west-county roads literally paved the way for growth in Pooler.
Lindler described Pooler's appeal in more personal terms.
"It's convenient," she said. "You can get to Savannah quickly. But you don't have to go to Savannah much.
"The eye doctor, the dentist and the family practice physician are right here. If we get a mall, we'll really be on the map."
Dennis Hutton of the Chatham County-Savannah Metropolitan Planning Commission said the new numbers understate Chatham's growth.
Hutton, the MPC's comprehensive planning director, said a study prepared by Georgia Tech arrived at higher figures and is more reliable.
He said the MPC is assuming more rapid growth as it tries to decide what transportation improvements are needed to cope with the influx of people.
In any case, Feiler and others said, the July 2006 figures don't reflect major developments planned for westside Savannah and Port Wentworth.
Those projects are expected to add tens of thousands of new residents to those areas by 2030.
The consensus appears to be that the upward trend is not going to flatten any time soon.
"I can't think of anything that is likely to change it," said Hadley of the governor's planning and budget office.
Feiler concurred.
"We are not peaking out by any stretch of the imagination," he said. "In my mind, we are just getting started."
A Georgia Tech report predicts half again as many coastal Georgians by 2030
If you're planning to stick around coastal Georgia, you'd better move over.=
About half again as many people are expected to populate the coast by 2030, according to a report commissioned by the Coastal Georgia Regional Development Center.
Over the next two decades, the report predicts, Georgia's six coastal counties and the next tier of four inland counties will grow to about 844,000 people.
Georgia Tech's Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development produced the report, in which population projections outstrip those from the State of Georgia Office of Planning and Budget.
The report combined data from the 2000 U.S. Census with more recent information, including building permits and certificates of occupancy from nine of the 10 counties, said Jason Barringer, research scientist with the Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development.
Don't look to local maternity wards to supply all those new people.
Instead, it's a previous baby boom that will contribute migrants from other parts of the country. Retiring baby boomers, to be exact.
"Most of the new growth will be from in-migration," Barringer said. "We're seeing a lot of retirees move in. Also both bases (King's Bay and Fort Stewart) bring in a lot of people."
Several million baby boomers will retire in the next seven to 10 years, said Vernon Martin, executive director of the Coastal Georgia RDC. Those from the Northeast see coastal Georgia's average home price of 260,000 as a bargain. Those who suffered through recent hurricane seasons in Florida see Georgia's coast, perhaps mistakenly, as protected.
"People who lived in Florida got those four or five storms. And there's overcrowding," he said. "Demographers call them half backs. They move to Florida and then move halfway back."
Population numbers are pivotal to funding formulas for federal and state monies for items such as roads and schools.
That's why the RDC funded the 50,000 study from an academic center. It expects to work with Georgia Tech to update the predictions every two years.
"We need something that's defensible about what population is now and what it's projected to be in the next 20 years," Martin said.
Population also plays into other resources controlled by the state, such as ground water, which is already a hot button issue for developers in coastal Georgia.
Higher populations will make the job of allocating water use and waste water discharge permits even more difficult, according to Nap Caldwell, senior planning and policy advisor at the Georgia Environmental Protection Division.
"It's safe to say it's a new day in how we handle wastewater in Chatham and Effingham even without growth," he said. "Place growth on top of that and you've got some challenges."
Politicians often love positive growth projections. In fact, Chatham County Commission Chairman Pete Liakakis has only one complaint about the report: It may have underestimated growth in Savannah and Chatham County.
Just look at all the new houses popping up on the county's west side, said Liakakis, who is also on the board of the Coastal Georgia RDC. But not everyone thinks more is necessarily better. Growth on Tybee worries council member Paul Wolff. "It's crucial we not allow the kind of development that's been done here to continue because of its cumulative effect on water quality," he said.
A recently published study from Peter Verity of the Skidaway Institute of Oceanography showed declining water quality in the Skidaway River estuary. The data stood on its head a long held paradigm that Georgia's estuaries, with their twice-daily flushing from high tides, could never get to a low oxygen state.
Verity spoke to a Tybee neighborhood group earlier this month and fingered coastal development as a large part of the problem.
"We've had a frontier mentality and that works as long as the population density is low," Verity said. "The way daddy did it is not good anymore."
Newcomers, especially those who have seen environmental degradation in the Northeast, may want to do things differently, according to Will Berson, a policy analyst with the Georgia Conservancy, who himself hails from New Jersey.
"They've seen the first order mistakes," he said. "You may see these come-heres with some pretty definite views about what should happen in land use, planning and the environment that may surprise people."
Increase in population County name 2000 population 2030 population percent increase Bryan 23,417 45,986 96 Bulloch 55,983 82,111 47 Camden 43,664 70,997 63 Chatham 232,048 307,472 32.5 Effingham 37,535 79,935 113 Glynn 67,568 100,483 49 Liberty 61,610 89,163 45 Long 10,304 22,607 119 McIntosh 10,847 18,626 71 Screven 15,374 26,779 74
City 2000 population 2030 population percent increase Bryan County Richmond Hill 6,959 14,825 113 Pembroke 2,379 4,672 96 Bulloch County Brooklet 1,113 1,632 47 Portal 597 876 47 Register 164 241 47 Statesboro 22,698 33,291 47 Camden County Kingsland 10,506 18,996 81 St. Marys 13,761 22,589 64 Woodbine 1,218 1,980 62.5 Chatham County Bloomingdale 2,665 3,531 32.5 Garden City 11,289 14,958 32.5 Pooler 6,239 12,902 107 Port Wentworth 3,276 4,341 32.5 Savannah 131,510 174,256 32.5 Thunderbolt 2,340 3,101 32.5 Tybee Island 3,392 4,495 32.5 Vernonburg 138 183 32.6 Effingham County Guyton 917 2,901 216 Springfield 1,821 3,878 113 Rincon 4,376 10,319 136 Glynn County Brunswick 15,600 23,200 49 Liberty County Hinesville 30,392 43,984 45 Allenhurst 788 1,140 45 Flemington 369 534 45 Midway 1,100 1,592 45 Riceboro 736 1,065 45 Walthourville 4,030 5,832 45 Long County Ludowici 1,440 3,159 119 McIntosh County Darien 1,719 2,952 71.7 Screven County Hiltonia 421 733 74 Newington 322 561 74 Oliver 253 441 74 Rocky Ford 186 324 74 Sylvania 2,675 4,659 71.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Coastal Georgia Regional Development Center
Construction continues on single-family homes and apartments in areas around Pooler such as Godley Station.
Construction continues on single-family homes and apartments in areas around Pooler such as Godley Station.
Drive along Jimmy Deloach Parkway in Pooler on a workday, and you'll see the dust clouds rising as big trucks rumble onto the roadway from construction sites.
They're hauling dirt for houses and town homes that make up many of the 408 building permits Pooler issued for single-family housing last year - houses and town homes valued at more than $57 million.
Through April of this year, Pooler issued an additional 220 permits for houses and town homes, representing $26.5 million in investments.
"Barring a national recession, I see more of the same," said former Pooler mayor and current Republican state Rep. Buddy Carter. "I think you'll see a steady increase (over the next few years) in the number of building permits."
But that growth doesn't come without a price.
"And as we have more residents, you'll see more of a strain put on the infrastructure and the public services," Carter said.
The challenge of growth, he added, is "to keep caught up" with essential services such as water and sewer, highways, and public safety.
The broader picture
What's happening in Pooler is part of a broader West Chatham housing boom.
In Port Wentworth north of Interstate 95, Sivica Communities Inc. is building Rice Hope - up to 4,500 houses and apartments over the next 10-15 years. Along Ga. 30, developer Fred Williams's Newport and Lakeshore subdivisions will add about 1,700 new houses over the next several years.
And along Ga. 204, Savannah plans to extend water and sewer lines to the New Hampstead development, where builders and developers are buying up roughly 4,000 acres from International Paper.
Ultimately, 11,275 residential structures are planned for New Hampstead. Developers there also have targeted another 114 acres for businesses.
Follow the lines
As subdivision developer Williams explains it, one has only to follow the water and sewer lines to understand West Chatham's future growth. Simply look at where local governments have laid those lines.
"The whole westside is just exploding everywhere," Williams says. "And the explosions are centering around the water and sewer infrastructure."
Pooler recently built a new wastewater plant and has signed a contract to buy up to 3 million gallons of water a day from Savannah.
In Port Wentworth, officials plan to have a new 2-million-gallon-a-day wastewater plant up and running by October 2008. Port Wentworth has also arranged to buy water from Savannah.
"The developers are chasing the sewerage," Williams says. "As far as the developers are concerned, that's the only way.
"Land without infrastructure - without the availability of water and sewer - is no use to us."
New neighbors
The housing boom naturally begs the question: Where do all these new homeowners come from?
Many of them have headed back up the coast from Florida after buying houses there - retreating from that hurricane-prone state to Savannah and its relatively lower-priced homes.
Others are coming from the opposite direction, fleeing chilly Northern states for the warm and sunny South.
"The people I am selling to are out-of-towners. Very seldom do I sell to a native Savannahnian any more," Williams said. "A lot of people are coming to Savannah just because they like the city. Sometimes, they don't even have a job, but choose to live here."
Joel Lewis, the Savannah area manager for construction at D.R. Horton, estimated that about half of the company's home buyers are Chatham County natives who have decided to "upgrade" - and about half are from other places.
"Obviously, they're from all over," Lewis said. "Many are from Florida, as well as Georgia and South Carolina - all up and down the coast."
Down on The Farm
Along Jimmy Deloach Parkway, work has begun on The Farm at Morgan Lakes - with 801 houses and town homes planned by build-out - and the Hunt Club - with 715 units planned.
Although nobody has moved in yet, the dump trucks are hauling dirt and a steady whir of heavy machinery sings in the late spring heat.
The Farm, developed by D.R. Horton, is advertising houses in the $180,000-$300,000 range - and town homes starting at $140,000. The sales office is painted red - like a barn - and bears a "Welcome Center" sign.
Back off the parkway, workers have erected the first shells of homes. In various stages of construction, their exteriors are still unfinished wood or Sheetrock.
Just inside the main entrance, crews have erected a grain silo. An old-fashioned windmill is planned. It's all part of an agricultural motif that runs throughout the development.
"We try to create a certain community appeal," Lewis said.
Of 170 lots in the subdivision's first phase, about 40 will be town homes - consistent with a trend that has cropped up in recent years.
Of the roughly $57 million in single-family houses approved in Pooler last year, about $6.6 million worth were town homes. This year through April, town homes account for about $5 million of the $26.5 million in single-family projects approved in Pooler.
Specially crafted gypsum firewalls (instead of block) mean town homes are less pricey than they used to be, Lewis said.
And thanks to their small size, they are popular with empty-nesters and with folks who don't want much yard work.
"We have a lot of luck with our town homes," Lewis said.
The challenges ahead The story of Pooler's growth began with the availability of water.
In 1997, Pooler City Council agreed to spend $1.2 million to link a water main into Savannah's system and to share the cost of boring a line underneath I-95.
As Councilman Stevie Wall recalls, the city figured it had to average 60 new homes per year over a 20-year span if the new water main - which snaked from I-95 down the Pooler Parkway to the water tower at City Hall - was to pay for itself.
Work was beginning at Godley Station, the southern portion of a 5,800-acre planned development on the west side of the interstate near the Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport.
That's when the boom started.
"Single-family housing went on a boom from there on out," Wall said.
City records show Pooler approved just 23 permits for new single-family houses in 1990.
By 2000, the annual number had jumped to 276 and topped 300 for the first time in 2003.
Pooler's decision to install the waterline was a big risk that paid bigger dividends, said state Rep. Carter, who was mayor at the time.
"There were chances that we took that paid off - and are paying off now handsomely," Carter said. "We did all that we could do in setting a good foundation."
But with growth, Carter said, there will also be potential problems: increased traffic flows that inevitably accompany growth, for example.
In Port Wentworth, where thousands of new houses are expected to be built over the next decade, commuters already are struggling with congested traffic around the intersections of I-95 and Ga. 21, he said.
"The figures (that show a West Chatham housing boom) can be a double-edged sword in a lot of ways," Carter said. "There are good things that come along with it - and challenges.
"And there are still challenges that lie ahead."
